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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Small dogs of dow strategy

every year invest $1K in small dogs of dow & forget about it:
Small dogs of dow - 12.8% vs, SPY returned 6.2% during same period!

small dog of dow Starting price Today price return
cvx 1996 14.8 120 711%
cvx 1997 19.17 120 526%
mo 1998 4.44 36.41 720%
mo 1999 5.35 36.41 581%
mo 2000 2.5 36.41 1356%
mo 2001 5.01 36.41 627%
ek 2002 50 0.1 -100%
jpm 2003 18.8 53.6 185%
t 2004 15.53 35.23 127%
t 2005 16.08 35.23 119%
gm 2006 0 -100%
pfe 2007 19.33 30.5 58%
c 2008 272.62 50.76 -81%
bac 2009 14.05 14.52 3%
t 2010 22.86 35.23 54%
t 2011 25.02 35.23 41%
t 2012 27.27 35.23 29%
t 2013 33.49 35.23 5%
xirr 12.79%

PFE price target $34.98

PFE resistance was at previous fibonnaci levels of $27.50, which it has tested 4 times in 2013. $27.50 has become support. Price target of $34.98 in next 3-6 months.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Returns of various asset classes during past 15 years




10/18/2013 5yr 10yr 15yr
EEM 14.31 11.89 ??
DEM / Emerging value (DFEVX) 15.9 14.96 16.32
Real estate/ CGMRX 11.76 13.66 16.12
MDY 19.79 10.28 11
VBR 18.1 10.01 10.98
Prec metals / VGPMX 1.53 4.8 9.39
xlu 13.26 10.5 7.69
MSCI EAFE/ EFA 11.43 7.55 5.64
World index 13.18 7.3 5.33
Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD 5.94 4.81 5.31
SPY 15.66 7.34 5.17
QQQ                                               24.02        9.98          ...