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Sunday, January 3, 2010

Countries

Here are GDP projections from Goldman Sachs:

SOURCE: Goldman Sachs
2050 Rank Country Name 2000 GDP 2010 GDP 2020 GDP 2030 GDP 2040 GDP 2050 GDP Annual Growth

2050 Rank
Country Name 2000 GDP 2010 GDP 2020 GDP 2030 GDP 2040 GDP 2050 GDP Annual Growth
1
CHN
China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453 7.0%
*
EU
European Union * 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288 2.5%
2
USA
United States 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165 2.5%
3
IND
India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803 8.9%
4
JPN
Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673 0.9%
5
BRA
Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074 5.7%
6
RUS
Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870 5.0%
7
UK
United Kingdom 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782 1.8%
8
GER
Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603 1.2%
9
FRA
France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148 1.7%
10
ITA
Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061 1.1%


HBR talked about south africa as a place to invest for next decade
BRIC is expected to have most growth in equity markets for next 40-50 years

Lost Decade 2000-2009

* Emerging markets outperformed developed markets
* Developing classes like commodities outperformed Equity & Bond markets
* Bond markets outperformed equities
* Major market events - tech & dotcom bubble of 2000, credit crunch in 2007
* Lengthy periods of low interest rates

Developed markets Over past decade:
* FTSE all world index = -7.3%
* Dow Jones Industrial average = -9.3%
* S&P = -24.1%, second worst decade ever since 1930's decade
* London FTSE 100 = -22%
* Japan Tokyo = -44%

Emerging markets over last decade:
* Russia = 802% (commodities rich - oil + metal industries)
* Brazil = 301% (commodities boom)
* India = 249% (IT + Outsourcing boom)
* China = 140% (exports, massive infrastructure program)

Commodities:
* Oil = 210% ($25.6 to 147.27 in July 2008 to 79.36 close)
* Gold = 281% ($1096/ounce)
* Copper = 290% ($7375/ tonne)

Currencies:
* US = -23.5%
* Euro = 43%
* Japan = 9%

Bonds:
* 10 yr Yield = 6.6% to 3.84%