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Saturday, October 10, 2009

Asset classes risk/ returns

According to IFA.com best return/risk classes to invest in:

Emerging Value, Emerging total mkt, International small value, US Large value, IV(?)

US large value is much better than IntV for higher return and lower risk



My Investment Mission statement

I would try to adhere to following investment principals:

My Investment Plan:
Overall:
1) Rebalance port at year end by selling SOME last year winners, and buying only little of last year beaten down asset class.
2) After market correction, invest new money according to asset allocation. After severe falls in market (not individual stocks), may be buy individual stocks - as they run sweet.
3) rest of year: accumulate additional cash, sell / buy at fibonacci ONLY. Hold off any other urges
401K: on quarterly basis, I add to Mo-Mo winners, Year end (once a year): rebalance a bit, sell some of last year winners, add some to beaten down asset class from last year. After market fall (once a year): invest new money added for the year.
IRAs/ 529s: Don't touch, may be 1-2 fund soln.

On Rebalancing Portfolios

Asset allocation:
Re-balancing portfolio every year leads to extra returns (rather than letting assets sit in same class over long periods). I experimented with permanent portfolio 1972-2008, don't touch approach generated 96X returns vs. rebalancing lead to 127X return

This strategy could be combined with Mo-Mo stop loss strategy. That is unload "heated up" class with stop loss rather than end of year rebalancing. similarly be cautious on picking up last years loosers randomly. But then academic theory suggests its not possible to time tops & bottoms, so may be no point worth trying.

I still feel best strategy is, plan rebalancing as follows:
End of year - rebalance your portfolio. Sell some winners buy some loosers
after market fall of year, add your cash hoards

Don't chisel around rest of year. Sit quietly for rest of year/