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Sunday, November 22, 2009

Monthly Returns

Last 5 years Monthly Returns (Jan 2004- Nov 2009)




Sectors















XLB xle xlf xli xlk xlp xlu xlv xly fsdax fstcx fsmex fsngx


1 -1.16% 0.61% -5.17% -3.59% -3.55% -1.87% -0.67% -0.91% -2.13% -0.61% -1.90% 1.87% 3.95%


2 1.31% 1.29% -4.63% -2.78% -2.24% -0.59% -1.00% -2.03% -2.26% -2.22% 0.21% -2.04% 1.22%


3 2.67% 1.56% 1.49% 2.72% 1.85% 1.55% 0.77% -0.72% 1.53% 1.15% 1.18% 0.55% 2.48%


4 2.37% 4.11% 5.46% 4.02% 2.13% 1.27% 1.93% 1.94% 2.86% 4.56% 2.73% 2.40% 5.24%


5 2.51% 4.26% 1.72% 2.23% 3.04% 1.89% 1.73% 1.56% 1.69% 1.76% 2.60% 1.12% 4.91%


6 -1.22% 2.22% -3.67% -1.72% -0.83% -1.16% 1.65% -1.02% -2.23% -1.91% -0.87% 0.78% 2.38%


7 1.08% 0.49% 1.39% 0.97% 0.43% 1.01% 0.31% 1.34% 0.38% 1.67% 0.83% 1.31% -1.02%


8 0.11% 0.39% 2.89% 1.07% 1.15% 1.69% 1.48% 1.87% 1.59% 2.22% 0.36% 2.51% -0.07%


9 0.26% 1.79% 0.35% 1.02% 0.56% 0.90% -0.39% -0.75% 0.45% 1.14% 0.98% 1.16% 1.77%


10 -3.02% -3.00% -3.94% -3.51% -1.00% -1.27% -0.96% -2.77% -2.00% -3.44% -4.87% -4.08% -4.22%


11 2.45% 2.27% -2.73% 1.99% 0.61% 1.52% 2.62% 1.28% -0.02% 1.91% 1.98% 0.15% -0.14%


12 0.61% -0.17% 0.32% 0.77% 0.29% 0.83% 0.14% 2.67% 1.18% 2.05% 1.49% 2.17% -0.16%





































Allocation

Bonds












eem efa ICF fsicx tlt trrdx spy vbr







1 -0.88% -3.27% -2.22% 0.42% -1.95% -2.00% -2.52% -2.22%
Recommendations try to Have 1 recommendation per month max 2
2 0.37% -1.02% -3.81% 0.36% 0.50% -1.17% -1.88% -1.91%
1 EOM Buy Russia
3 2.21% 2.19% 2.68% 0.32% 0.08% 1.25% 1.18% 2.03%
2 EOM buy VT
4 3.99% 3.41% 4.70% 0.98% -2.34% 3.14% 2.77% 2.54%
3 Start Buying after Jan/ Feb sale
5 2.89% 2.19% 1.56% 0.65% -1.00% 2.35% 2.11% 2.90%
4 lots of stocks peak in April, good time to start selling
6 -0.62% -1.24% -2.25% 0.48% 1.07% -0.83% -1.27% -0.73%
5 EOM sell performers
7 2.10% 0.66% 3.24% 1.05% 0.64% 0.68% 0.75% 1.29%
6 EOM Sell FSNGX
8 -0.02% 1.20% 5.21% 1.30% 2.86% 1.05% 1.33% 2.13%
7

9 3.63% 0.62% 2.02% 0.63% 0.45% 0.48% 0.42% 1.02%
8 Buy RMBS
10 -2.26% -2.51% -4.31% -1.04% -0.43% -2.57% -2.50% -3.92%
9 good time to protect, as everything falls in Oct
11 1.85% 0.84% -2.64% 0.48% 3.54% 0.64% 0.97% 0.33%
10

12 5.05% 3.81% 2.33% 1.18% 3.12% 1.83% 0.69% 0.56%
11











12 EOM sell performers/internationals of year, buy FSNGX; close TLT puts


Stocks















goog intc fxi epi eeb rsx mu rmbs eric






1 1.26% -11.07% -4.37% -6.36% -5.55% -13.85% 4.93% 1.42% -0.45%






2 -9.43% -1.02% 0.18% -9.43% -1.13% 6.57% -0.80% 0.30% 1.01%






3 0.39% 2.34% 2.12% 2.81% 2.21% 8.75% 0.54% 7.56% -0.55%






4 15.21% 5.28% 7.91% 15.78% 12.47% 16.01% 5.86% -3.67% 7.37%






5 5.60% 2.90% 2.27% 14.95% 11.94% 26.95% 5.90% -5.33% 2.95%






6 2.95% 1.40% 2.94% -13.32% -2.69% -4.87% -6.16% -3.39% -0.22%






7 -3.46% 3.63% 6.12% 7.80% 1.91% -0.41% 1.63% -9.73% -2.31%






8 0.07% 4.79% -0.71% -0.13% -1.89% -4.37% -0.71% -3.87% 2.63%






9 7.90% -4.09% 2.47% -3.11% 4.18% 0.75% 3.43% 6.44% 3.06%






10 17.62% -2.71% -1.77% -18.80% -0.36% -7.60% -4.04% -3.91% -9.07%






11 -1.05% 0.15% 3.40% -0.01% 0.14% -5.84% -8.89% 20.09% -0.96%






12 1.63% -0.82% 4.33% 12.19% 5.68% -2.36% -3.22% 8.65% 1.76%








Strategies:
* For TLT, I studied 6month rolling returns, between Oct-Jan highest average perf over last 8 years, peaking in Dec. So it might be good to sell put calls expiring in December. Or sell Jan puts & close them in December.

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