Following chart is pretty good to show economic cycle & stock market cycle.
Stock market is usually ahead of business cycle. You could track "smart" money gushing into particular sectors to detect which phase you are in.
e.g. in 2009 recovery of stocks, I saw similar trends of recovery prices. In november I find Monsanto / Exxon as great value who haven't participated in rally yet. Gold is starting to run again. etc.... By January may be energy will also run up & we'd reach peak of bull market
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