2010

* Employment should improve
* Interest rates = Fed might keep rates down for first part of year, till employment recovers. The Treasury needs to refinance $2 trillion worth of short-term debt in 2010, in addition to $1.5 trillion of new debt. That's a recipe for higher interest rates. TLT has been falling like rock from $119 in Dec08 to $89.9 in Dec09 = 25% drop. Because of anemic interest rates, tonnes of side liners are being forced to clobber up bonds, high quality stocks, dividend paying stocks, xlu, ....
* Inflation should rise before fed will raise interest rates.
* Home depot/ Lowes will benefit from Obama's handy man tax credit plan
* Real estate = mortgage rates continue to remain low.
Fed extended first time buyer credit to Apr 2010. Fed is expected to pull out of mortgage business in 2010. Fed is expected to stop backing up mortgages in March 2010. This should prices of mortgage backed securities by a lot! Jim cramer/ Warren Buffet is getting interested in real estate. It might be really good time to buy.
* Some of TARP money has been returned. What is impact on future debt now? How will US pay off debt?
* Double dip = several pundits expecting first half of 2010 good but second part bad.
* What is impact of Health bill on Health insurance companies?


I am tempted to invest as follows:
Stocks:
PFE: chatter on pharmas valuations
New York Stock Exchange: Focusing on growth, CFR talked about it
HD: Obama incentives for home repairs
Germany: stabilizing economy - bill gross likes fiscal policies
icf: recovery
vbr: lagged others in 2008
eem: where growth is